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What to expect in the next 10 years

15 posts
  1. Ryan Belliston
    Ryan Belliston avatar
    2 posts
    7/9/2015 5:07 PM
    I have an essay question that I need a little help in. Describe the 3 things that will drive change in the golf course maintenance industry over the next 10 years.

    Some topics that come to mind

    Water usage (severe drought)

    Interest in the industry declining leads to loss of customers (fear for our job)

    What comes to your mind in the 10 years in golf course maintenance?

    Thanks in advanced!

    Sorry if I posted in wrong section. This is my first post!



  2. Henry Heinz
    Henry Heinz avatar
    0 posts
    7/10/2015 6:07 AM
    I would think cost of equipment, with emissions driving the price up one will need to hang on to equipment even longer than before.

    With that comes qualified technicians. With electronics, super high pressure that can kill on the new tier4 diesel engines, hybrid technology, comes the need to for continuing education.

    A lot of old school technicians will most likely not adjust to the learning curve due to the amount of time they have left or even education level, so that will lead to higher priced repairs from a dealer. Plus to attract new talent in to the industry the wage scale will have to go up, otherwise techs may as well go into automotive for the money and love of turning a wrench.

    Hopefully the cost of fuels and rubber for hoses and tires will come down, but in the past 3 months my tire supplier has raised prices twice. The first one was a pretty decent jump, the second not so bad, but really early considering the first jump in price.

    Regards,



  3. Peter Bowman
    Peter Bowman avatar
    11 posts
    7/10/2015 8:07 AM
    Golf Course Superintendents and their clubs will beg for reclaimed water instead of complaining about having to use it as in years past.



  4. Andy Jorgensen
    Andy Jorgensen avatar
    1 posts
    7/10/2015 8:07 AM
    I would agree with the cost of purchasing and maintaining equipment with the new Tier 4 regulations. That being said, the manufacturers are looking at ways to optimize horsepower to keep under the Tier 4 regulations while still maximizing output. Either way, eventually courses will have to deal with Tier 4 regulations and the cost that comes with it.

    I would also agree with water availability. Most parts of the country don't have regulations yet because they haven't been faced with shortages. However, it is coming. Associations need to group together and start the talks now so that some sort of agreement is in place before the reductions occur. Superintendent's need to look at ways to conserve and reduce output prior to restrictions.

    I also see an issue with nutrient regulations hindering our activities. We've heard in recent months(even years here in Florida) about nutrient use around water bodies, leaching and runoff into groundwater supplies. Many states have regulations currently in place limiting or restriction nutrient use of specific nutrients, time of the year or even location. Here in Florida, some cities and counties have gone as far as making it illegal to apply Nitrogen during the summer months. Makes no sense....you can go even further with pesticide regulations and the loss of effective products(Nemacur, Mocap, MSMA, Methyl-Bromide).

    Labor is also going to be an issue with regards to minimum wages and benefit costs. It's hard to inflate a labor budget 25-30% when costs per round have stayed relatively flat for the past 10 years.



  5. Matt Dutkiewicz
    Matt Dutkiewicz avatar
    0 posts
    7/10/2015 12:07 PM
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the essay question for the GreenStart Academy application? Pretty sure they want your OWN opinions, thoughts and ideas. Some might see it as resourceful, but honestly, it seems a little shady to come on the forum and get the answers to your essay question.



  6. Ryan Belliston
    Ryan Belliston avatar
    2 posts
    7/10/2015 1:07 PM
    Yes it is. Just gathering thoughts and ideas for this. I am a brand new Assistant and want to see where people take this topic. I've already wrote my essay and included topics such as severe drought, technology of irrigation maps and programming, and how the industry is slowing dying out.



  7. Wahlin Scott B
    Wahlin Scott B avatar
    7/10/2015 1:07 PM
    I am going to go with resourceful. Making decisions based on information and feedback is what we do. Aside from that comment I think the biggest changes will be in the area of labor. Everything that can be done is being done to squeeze labor. Part-timers are replacing full-timer positions to save on benefits. The too's of golf are not being addressed: too expensive, too hard, takes too long. Workers are being asked to work longer hours while they are yearning to spend more time with their kids. The only ones who will be able to afford to learn, play and spend the time with it will be the most wealthy. No course that used MSMA (among other pesticides) is going to be able to afford the demands placed upon it by the EPA while trying to keep fees in a realm that the middle class can afford.



  8. Sean Hoolehan
    Sean Hoolehan avatar
    0 posts
    7/11/2015 10:07 AM
    Ryan,

    New Networking and delivery learning options. Seems like travel and conference education is phasing to independent networks, like Twitter, FB, Instagram. Will we even have print magazines in 10 years? Will we have a national conference?

    Impact of online ordering and delivery on the traditional distribution network.

    Breakthroughs in genetics and its impact on everything.

    I see no problem with you using the forum to look for ideas. In fact I think it shows your a pretty sharp guy!

    Good Luck,

    Sean



  9. Gary Carls
    Gary Carls avatar
    19 posts
    7/11/2015 12:07 PM
    Seems like in our area more and more courses (both public and private) are being taken over by management companies. I may be wrong but I would expect that in ten years golf course staff will be making less than they currently make at many facilities. Not meant to be a knock on management companies but the business has gotten a lot tougher for everyone and they are still trying to make a profit.

    Gary K. Carls, CGCS, President - Oakland Turfgrass Education Initiative

  10. Trevor Monreal
    Trevor Monreal avatar
    5 posts
    7/12/2015 7:07 AM
    10 years???
    Heck, in less than 5 years I expect to never leave my office...or my house.
    I'm already working on having a drone fly over the entire course with a live feed to see how the staff is progressing. Sure, I'm going to put on another 100 pounds but I'll have the drone fly over to the gym every so often.
    Also, in 10 years I see management companies having drones/robots doing a majority of the maintenance (there will be an app for that). By then, minimum wage will be $25 an hour..so you young guys will be OK.
    In 10-15 years I will start contracting out a fleet of drones, armed appropriately, to marshal play...man is that ever going to be FUN!
    Now, don't anybody steal my idea



  11. Douglas Eggert
    Douglas Eggert avatar
    1 posts
    7/12/2015 12:07 PM
    I usually don't comment on these topics, but....

    Staffing levels will continue to drop, while expectations will continue to soar. The finding and retaining compentant help issues will continue. Seen this for the last 5 years where I'm at. Current conditioning levels enjoyed at your facilities now will be considered too costly.

    Conservation of water, plain and simple, it will be liquid gold. Even though I have an abundance of water where I'm at, I see monitoring usage a way of life. I'm in conservation mode now. Smarter irrigation controls will be forced upon all of us. Those that don't have them will have to get them.

    Chemical and fertilizer mandates will become the norm, from no phosphorus to out right bans of herbicides and certain fungicides. This is already happened in areas of the country. Round up is getting beat up pretty bad right now. I see states requiring a mandated fertilizer and chemical usage plan being filed months in advanced and be reviewed annually.

    I see many of our turf professionals stepping away from the turf life. Many because of time issues, just being tired from over work, or disenfranchised with the industry as a whole.

    As for golfers in general, I see the golfing base falling even more, with rounds taking 5 hours. I see discounting in fees as a way of life. I don't remember ever seeing anyone pay full greens fee anymore. Can't discount your way to prosperity..... Many Pro's and GM's think they can.... And we continue to step up to cover the shortfalls.

    And all this is happening, we as a group of superintendents try and piece this all together for something to present the golfing public, hoping to etch out a meager career.

    Issues such as equipment emission compliance, equipment costs, project costs, renovation costs are all we deal with now. It's the unbudgeted items high expense things that'll test the facilities. You can only milk a course so much before it becomes obsolete or falls into disrepair.



  12. Keith Pegg
    Keith Pegg avatar
    0 posts
    7/12/2015 4:07 PM
    I remember 10-15 years ago seeing almost the same question; do not remember the doom and gloom answers then and these will also be forgotten. That said golf is going downhill a little and it may or may not pick up. With more renewable energies on the market every day the same can be said may or may not lower cost. Climate that is going to get better as it has been getting better; warmer that is. Science has told us a mini ice age is coming of course they do not really know but it is a given that the sun does run up and run down the intensity line. Water golf may or may not go dry, safe to say some will and some will not. World problems are really only one and that is too many people. I have no comment on that.
    I enjoy today and I will enjoy the next day, when I do not enjoy these days I will move on and find the day I do enjoy.



  13. Stephen Ravenkamp
    Stephen Ravenkamp avatar
    1 posts
    7/16/2015 10:07 AM
    Amen, Keith. Live by the philosophy the smart man learns from the past. The wise man plans for the future. But the happy man enjoys today. After all, its called the "present."

    Steve Ravenkamp, CGCS, CFM
    Apache Stronghold Golf Resort
    San Carlos, AZ



  14. Larry Allan
    Larry Allan avatar
    0 posts
    7/16/2015 1:07 PM
    I expect in 10 years to be dead or nearly so. Just the other day I was 18, traveling the world, living life to the fullest. Now I'm 56, worn out and tired. This industry can suck the life out of you. I still love it but I liked it a lot more my first couple of years when they thought I was a genius.
    I don't Twit, I don't Face. I am becoming a dinosaur. If things change as much in the next 10 years as they have in the past 10, I'm screwed



  15. Clay Putnam
    Clay Putnam avatar
    33 posts
    7/16/2015 4:07 PM
    Larry Allan said: I expect in 10 years to be dead or nearly so. Just the other day I was 18, traveling the world, living life to the fullest. Now I'm 56, worn out and tired. This industry can suck the life out of you. I still love it but I liked it a lot more my first couple of years when they thought I was a genius.
    I don't Twit, I don't Face. I am becoming a dinosaur. If things change as much in the next 10 years as they have in the past 10, I'm screwed


    Take a blue pill. You'll be fine.



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